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HS2 benefits to regions are "unclear"

The Government lacks clarity on the regional benefits of High Speed 2, says the National Audit Office (NAO) in its early review of the programme.

The independent parliamentary body say the strategic case for HS2 should be clearer and suggest current Government evidence in favour of the scheme is “weak.”

Questions were raised over the business case as current evidence in favour of the line puts a high emphasis on journey-time savings, from faster and more reliable journeys. The NAO says the relationship between these benefits and the rebalancing of regional economies is unclear.

The report also highlights that benefit-cost ratio, calculated for phase one, has twice contained errors, and suggests a £3.3bn funding gap over the four year period between 2017-2021.

Head of the NAO, Amyas Morse, said: “It’s too early in the High Speed 2 programme to conclude on the likelihood of its achieving value for money. Our concern at this point is the lack of clarity around the Department’s objectives.

“The strategic case for the network should be better developed at this stage of the programme. It is intended to demonstrate the need for the line but so far presents limited evidence on forecast passenger demand and expected capacity shortages on existing lines.

“It is also unclear how High Speed 2 will transform regional economies by delivering jobs and growth. The Department is trying against a challenging timetable to strengthen its evidence and analysis, which at present provide a weak foundation for securing and demonstrating success in the programme in future.”

Rhian Kelly, CBI director of Business Environment, said: “It is early days in a 20-year project but the government needs to implement lessons quickly from last year’s franchising failure to make HS2 a success. Industry, investors and taxpayers must see a watertight business case and programme management.

“There is very little advantage in prolonging the timetable given the West Coast Main Line is set to reach full capacity by the mid-2020s - squeezing out passengers and freight. Ministers need to secure real consensus on the route now to avoid the project being hit by years of delays further down the line.

“HS2 cannot be built in isolation. We need sustained, additional capital investment in existing road and rail networks now to meet increased demand.”

This was posted in Bdaily's Members' News section by Tom Keighley .