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Is virtual reality here to stay?

In finance, the problem with bubbles is not that they expand, but that those contributing to growth have no way of seeing outside of them. For technology enthusiasts and gamers, digitally encasing your visual experience is the obvious next step in enhancement to our lives. The Oculus Rift is a virtual reality headset which has caught the attention of many proponents of tech based alterations to everyday experience. Michael Abrash, a developer at the games designer Valve, went as far as saying it “leads us eventually to having true augmentation all the time, every place”. But what is “true augmentation”, and what will it change?

Unlike ‘augmented reality’, virtual reality allows users to step into a simulation. Ben Monck, who trialled the headset at a recent event, explained to me that “it feels as though you have entered a completely different world… the first thing I did was look up into the sky, to my amazement, you can see clouds blowing over your head, birds passing over, and you literally feel like you are involved in the projection itself.” Though showing potential for popularity, the strategy of the company, Oculus VR, is likely to be questioned. Though the model currently available costs $300, CEO Brendan Iribe recently mused that making it free is a key aim. This is encouraging or deluded, depending on your level of scepticism.

Those in the deluded camp would point to the previous failure of VR and the potential for this failure to be repeated. Users complained of motion sickness, poor computation and a scarcity of games. But today, VR and augmented reality technology seems to be catching, if not surpassing the speculations of fiction. A contraption called an Omni platform allows users to walk on a static platform whilst within their chosen simulation. Computing power is magnified enormously by Moore’s law, where the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. A thriving contingent of would be games designers are keen to contribute to the experiences available. There is even an execution simulation available.

The central obstacle to growth for the Oculus itself will likely be the dominance of Sony and Microsoft in the gaming market, along with its funding structure, whose consistency is questionable. Oculus was financed via Kickstarter but has also benefitted from venture capital. The business model can be further scrutinized on the basis of its motives. Those developing the Oculus clearly see intrinsic value in their endeavours. Whether an insatiable interest rather than a pure desire to profit can successfully compete is unlikely, especially when Sony and Xbox are gifted the perfect situation: VR can be market tested against the backdrop of its prior failure and if successful, a better funded and staffed industry can swoop in with a more affordable headset without being sandwiched between two dominant hegemons. The prescient question is not whether there will be an Oculus console, but how the bigger players will respond to the way VR emerges as a popular new technology.

This was posted in Bdaily's Members' News section by Jack Armstrong .