General Election 2017: North West business leaders give their hopes and predictions

Voters are heading to the ballot boxes this Thursday (June 8) for one of the most tumultuous and unpredictable General Elections in recent years.

With Brexit, the NHS and national security understandably dominating political discourse in the last few weeks, we reached out to the North West’s business community for a taste of what its leaders expect to see – and what they want as an outcome – from this snap election.

Andrew Stellakis, managing director of Q2Q

“It’s no secret that the country’s future rests on the Brexit deal we secure over the next couple of years. But as certainty won’t be possible until the negotiations are underway, this election is simply distracting from that reality.

“Fundamentally, the mandate from the public will determine who our Prime Minister is for the next four years, but it won’t have any real impact on that person’s authority over the trade deal, which is the critical issue for the UK.

“From a business perspective, the front-runners present a polarising choice when it comes to both the election and Brexit. Ultimately, it’s become a personality contest – Corbyn is doing a good job of appealing to the common man, but is likely to be too conciliatory to secure us a good deal, while May is battling to prove her authority, but her relentless pursuit of a ‘hard Brexit’ is dangerous and could see us walking away empty-handed.

“What’s worrying is that real issues are being overshadowed by this political performance – it’s now less than a year until the General Data Protection Regulations are enforced, for example, but where’s the media coverage? To continue trading with Europe, businesses need to prepare now for these changes – but no one’s talking about it.

“So, whoever wins on Thursday, it should be their priority to define and publicise the negotiables and non-negotiables of the trade deal. And then we’ll need to brace ourselves for even more uncertainty as they lead us through Brexit’s unchartered waters.”

Steven Hunt, managing director of Steven Hunt & Associates

“Locally Liverpool will remain a Labour stronghold but nationally I can’t see anything else but a landslide Conservative win, none of the other parties appear to have a credible leader who the nation could put their hand on their hearts and trust.

“We need a party who can sensibly represent the UK at the Brexit table, one who can be trusted to negotiate a fair and reasonable departure.

“The sooner the country can get back to doing real things on a day to day basis the better, the public are fed up with politicians childishly shouting at each other.”

Helen Griffin-Booth, director of Bluerow Homes

“The party manifestos spell a promising future for the private rented sector, which will certainly see benefits for both tenants and their landlords.

“The move to introduce three-year tenancies will offer greater security for families who want a long-term home, while landlords will benefit from guaranteed income.

“That said, there is a risk for landlords being tied down to “problem tenants”. Given the length of the tenancy, it will be executed as a deed rather than a tenancy agreement, meaning that it will be more difficult to terminate the contract.

“I would like to see a wider implementation of break clauses across the country, allowing greater flexibility for both parties to terminate the contract early.”

“The manifestos also give leverage to the hope that the next five years will spell a continued increase in standards across the sector, and removing rogue landlords and agents from the market will play a key role in this.

“To achieve these standards, it is essential that landlords are offered support from the government in providing quality, affordable housing stock for the PRS. This will not only benefit landlords and tenants, but will help to stabilise the property market as a whole, and offer a much needed boost to the wider economy.”

John Lyon, managing director of ICS

“In terms of the effect the forthcoming election will have on the temporary workforce, it is difficult to know for certain as both Labour and Conservative have remained quiet.

“It is such an important and large sector, as a huge amount of people in the UK are freelancers, but there have been no big headlines on where the two parties stand with issues affecting this community.

“This is surprising considering the recent controversial changes to IR35 in the public sector, as well as the travel and subsistence changes from last year. The self-employed/freelancing sector, and what it contributes to the economy, is something that really should be considered.

“However, the only focus has been on corporation tax and personal tax. The impression myself and many others have is that they are both almost sitting and waiting to see who wins, and then perhaps they might make more noise about the effects on these individuals. At this point, we don’t know what is on the table and it is a real shame.”

Mitchel White, CEO of LeftMedia

“When Theresa May called her Brexit general election in April I think everybody including her thought this would be an easily won election fought on Brexit alone.

“But it seems everyone other than the Tories have remembered that an elected government have domestic duties too that will go beyond the date we leave the EU. Tories traditionally known for their support of small business, seem to have forgotten them again in this election, only months after their National Insurance U-Turn in the Budget.

“Labour’s plans to raise corporation tax have been met by resistance from small and large business owners alike, but with corporation tax being one of the lowest in the G20, I think an increase to previous levels would create a more sustainable economy.

“Everyone needs to pay their way to ensure our public services receive the investment they need, businesses paying their taxes is no different. As a business owner myself I understand you should be rewarded for the risks you have taken to set up your business, but not at the expense of the taxpayer or your employees being paid an unfair wage.

“Theresa May and the Conservatives will win the election on June 8 but I think it will be a lot closer than people expected in April, especially if younger voters turn out.”

Wayne Brophy, managing director of Cast UK

“I thought it was a smart move of the Conservatives calling a general election and I expected it to be a landslide for them.

“They have handled the aftermath of Brexit well and steadied the ship following Cameron’s departure. However, Corbyn’s support is starting to gain momentum and there is still an appetite for change within the British public.

“I also think Corbyn’s move to attend the TV debate at last minute when May didn’t was equally smart. I do hope the Tories win as I think they are better for business. However, it will be a lot closer than I originally thought.”

Mick Ord, founder of Mick Ord Media Consultancy

“I think the Tories will win on Thursday and their majority will be substantial. Labour has continued to fail to attract the AVLBs (Always Voted Labour But..) which have been lost to UKIP and the SNP over the past few years and I can’t see them returning to the fold any time soon.

“I’m concerned that the Brexit negotiations will mean that the Government will take their eye off the ball in terms of strategic planning across a whole range of sectors ; there’s a big danger that the need for long-term economic insight will take second place to the short-term business of politics.

“So what’s new? That’s the way the British seem to do things.

“The country is falling behind our major competitors in the digital industries where much infrastructure work, for example much, much faster broadband speeds, needs to be done across the whole country but I’m not holding my breath.”

Jude Turner, director of digital at Purple Riot Marketing

“In a time of great unrest and uncertainty, the upcoming election is proving to be a divisive one. Being Manchester born and bred and after everything that has happened in our city recently, continuing with a government that has brought in police cuts and promises further privatisation of the NHS would be disastrous.

“Jeremy Corbyn may not be your average politician but that’s what is fantastic about him and we feel he may just be the change that’s needed. Despite an unprecedented campaign, seemingly backed by much of the mainstream media - to destroy his character and his politics - he continues to grow in popularity as people see past the rhetoric and spin. We think this election may have some surprises in store.”

Sara Lawton, director at Construction Impact Framework

“As a small procurement business situated in the North West of England I am in the unique position of working with 49 other SME’s who act as Supply Partners delivering the construction services offered by my business The Construction Impact Framework.

“During the lead up to the General Election I asked my Supply Partners what their concerns were and what they would like to see from our Political Parties and although a mixed response there were two underlying themes that were most common.

“Firstly, businesses want to know how the parties will help to sustain the construction industry after Brexit; a lot of infrastructure in the North West has been and continues to be funded by European monies. In such a volatile industry lack of finance to continue building will undoubtedly throw the industry into another recession.

“Secondly, Education. Young People are entering the industry without the appropriate skills required to hit the ground running; this is a major challenge for any industry so businesses want to know what the parties will do to ensure the Educational system can equip our young people with the skills, knowledge and confidence required to enter the industry.

“We are a country of two halves that has seen an increasing North South divide. One of the most worrying aspects of deprivation and unemployment is how it has a detrimental effect on democracy; it promotes apathy and voters simply do not turn up at polling stations.

“The North West has some of the most deprived communities in the country so the race for the leadership title could lie in the hands of the young, young people hungry for a future and hungry for change. So a combination of a youth hopeful for a more promising tomorrow that is not steeped in austerity and businesses wanting investment in education and the industry could very lead to a Labour victory on the June 8.”

Prof. Matt Wilson, owner of Telecoms Cloud Limited

“The Conservatives will win on June 8, but locally of course there will be a Labour landslide. Whoever wins, I personally want the incoming governments to take a long hard look at the Northern Powerhouse initiative and check that it’s actually going to deliver what the people in the North actually need.

“I still feel that digital infrastructure has still not been addressed, for example our own council in Liverpool has taken a short term position on it by flogging off a valuable public asset that could have greatly helped not only the Merseyside region, but the North as a whole.

“Without proper policy and action over digital infrastructure, I predict the fortunes of the North to decline as we succumb our manual jobs to robots and automation.”

Robert Levy, executive partner at Kuits

“With the polls giving little by way of certainty of outcome and social media being dominated by activists of every political persuasion, it’s difficult to predict with any certainty the outcome on 8 June. Turnout could make a big difference, particularly amongst those aged 18-25, who are widely thought to favour Labour.

“From a position of apparently unassailable dominance, Theresa May’s Conservatives have tested the loyalty of their core vote by introducing controversial issues such as social care and fox hunting into their manifesto, and this will undoubtedly have cost them votes.

“Labour are promising an end to austerity with a tax and spend manifesto that will appeal to their party faithful, but the leadership credentials and core values of Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour frontbench team have come under severe scrutiny.

“The predominant concern being expressed by our commercial clients should Labour return to power on Thursday is one of uncertainty as to tax and economic policy, as well as the expected downward reaction in Sterling, which would slow the economy and materially damage business confidence in the short- and medium-term.

“However, with the Brexit negotiation looming large and the awful events in Manchester and on London Bridge in the forefront of the mind of the electorate, I expect leadership to be the deciding factor in the polling booths up and down the country. On that factor alone, despite a lacklustre campaign, I expect Theresa May to be returned to power with an overall majority of 80+ seats.”

Trefor Owen-Jones, FPFS chartered financial planner at Charles Derby

“Theresa May has called the election for two main reasons. The first is about timing. The next election was due in 2020 which would be just after the conclusion of Brexit negotiations. If those negotiations do not go well, it would no doubt affect voting intentions. Now the next election will not need to be held until 2022.

“The second reason is a bid to increase the Tory majority so that the PM is not so reliant on the hard-line Conservative MPs who do not wish to do a deal with Europe. An increased majority would mean she would have more leeway to negotiate.

“The Conservatives had such a large lead at the start of the election campaign that it was theirs to lose. They did not want to take any risks which will be the main reason why Theresa May did not wish to take part in the leaders’ debate. However, this tactic has backfired as Jeremy Corbyn has improved his image and come across as a politician with conviction, while Theresa May has lost some of her reputation as a strong, reliable leader.

“The Conservatives will almost certainly still have a majority but it may be as low as 25 which is not a significant increase on the current situation. It will still leave Theresa May reliant on all her MPs for support, so restricting her negotiating ability. This is likely to mean a fall in the value of sterling, which will result in a further increase in the value of the FTSE 100. However, the majority of smaller UK businesses will find that the fall in the value of the pound will increase their costs further and put greater pressure on profit margins.”

Mike Perls, regional chair at the Institute of Directors, North West

“This is an important time for the country and the outcome of Thursday’s general election will see the future of our region be shaped by policy directly impacting our economy and our people. So what’s top of the wish list for businesses in the North West and what do our members want to see happen, whether the Conservatives remain in power or if there is a change of Government?

“To ensure the continued growth of our economy in the North West, the elected Government’s focus must be on investment in the fundamentals – embedding skills, upgrading infrastructure and creating a positive business environment. These are the areas that a Government should focus on to ensure the UK as a whole can prosper.

“With IoD members already reporting the lack of appropriate skills in the workforce as their biggest concern, investing in skills is crucial of course; retraining those in work and delivering education curricula fit for the 21st century. Our business groups have expressed concerns about immigration targets and a proper immigration policy linked to the skills gap would be favourable, with a viable infrastructure in place to enable any target to be met.

“On everything from tax to regulation, competitiveness will be key; ensuring the transition to retained business rates occurs as smoothly as possible and that areas without sufficient organic growth at the moment can continue to deliver local services. With this in mind, the IoD has already called for a pilot in the North West for additional tax relief for investing in start-ups. There must be real incentives for more pro-business environments that allow private enterprise to flourish.

“Finally, here in the North West we want to ensure that the Metro Mayor’s agenda is driven forward. We want to see Government Ministers supporting Andy Burnham’s efforts here in Greater Manchester by hosting ‘regional Cabinets’ in the latter half of 2017. These can be accompanied by other meetings of national political figures with our local office holders. These will demonstrate that Mayors who are at the heart of the political process are worth engaging with as a powerful force for good, here in the region.”

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